Covid will become a pandemic
I am playing now with Corona virus data. I have tried simulating various epidemiological models. The only reasonable conclusions at this stage I can make are:
a) China started with the quarantine measures way too late.
b) Due to late start with quarantine measures, quarantines in China are still not having any measurable effect.
c) Within China, in ~1/2 of provinces the growth rates of infection follows the models of uncontrolled epidemic.
d) Outside of China, spread is still not of an epidemic type.
As policy implications:
a) China should start introducing quarantine measures in multiple provinces.
b) Travel from many provinces of mainlaid China, and specially to countries with underdevlopped healthcare systems should be stopped untill quick, cheap and easy to use diagnostic tools are developped.
c) Cost-benefit analysis of quarantines and travel banns is the wrongest possible approach in the cases of potential global epidemics – these are potentially EVT events and standard cost-benefit analysis in these cases is wrong approach by construction. Just like trying to calculate Value-at-Risk in the midst of financial crisis.
d) Coordination of effort between countries to stop the spread across the globe is important in very early stages, later it becomes counterproductive